Conditioning and the Sure-Thing Principle
Robert J. Aumann, Sergiu Hart and Motty Perry
Abstract
This paper undertakes a careful examination of the concept of conditional
probability and its use. The ideas are then applied to resolve a conceptual
puzzle related to Savage's "Sure-Thing Principle."
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The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Center for Rationality DP-393,
June 2005
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© Sergiu Hart